Stock Watch — September 25, 2026
Market Day Summary | Not investment advice
Summary as of 8:15 AM IST, Friday, September 25, 2026
📊 INDICES
Thursday (Sep 24) close data; % change = Thursday’s session move. Next trading session opens today, Sep 25.
| Index | Close (Sep 24) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,063.10 | -383.70 | ↘️ -1.64% |
| Nifty Bank | 55,438.50 | -1,110.40 | ↘️ -1.96% |
| Nifty FinServ (FinNifty) | 24,954.15 | -383.70 | ↘️ -1.51% |
| Nifty IT | 28,208.85 | -645.70 | ↘️ -2.24% |
| Sensex | 73,580.54 | -1,247.71 | ↘️ -1.67% |
| GIFT Nifty (Fri a.m.) | ~23,137 | +28 pts vs futures prev close | ➡️ mild positive open |
Pre-market signal (for Friday’s open): A Bloody Thursday — the worst session since April. Nifty broke below its 2.5-month consolidation, closing at the lowest level since April, with the IRDAI insurance commission-cap proposal the sector bomb (more below) and a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia spiking crude ~3%. India VIX exploded +22.8% to 12.71 — this time it is fear. GIFT Nifty holds a ~28-point premium (~23,137), signalling a flat-to-mildly-positive open — a pause, not a recovery. Technically, 23,000 is the line: a convincing break opens 22,700–22,500; upside resistance 23,200–23,300. PCR at 0.963 with Call OI (2.07 cr) well above Put OI (1.55 cr) — the tape is set up to sell rallies. Bank Nifty: hold 55,000; resistance stacked at 55,700/55,900/56,100, bias sell-on-rise below 56,053. Macro: Brent eased to $106.02 but US 10-year yield ~5.11% keeps the pressure on. Weekend factor: a 3-day bank strike Sep 28–30 is confirmed for next week — expect defensive positioning into Friday’s close.
🏦 BANKS — Digital Payments Focus
| Bank | Symbol | Close (Sep 24) | Change % | Key Levels | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFC Bank | HDFCBANK | 728.90 | ↘️ -1.13% | R 745 / S 720 | Best of the big banks again. Bancassurance income is in the IRDAI blast radius but least exposed. 22% credit-card market; CIS adds +123k. Watch 720 — a hold keeps the relative-strength story intact. |
| ICICI Bank | ICICIBANK | 1,334.50 | ↘️ -0.41% | R 1,365 / S 1,320 | Minimal damage (-0.41%). iMobile Pay; CIS +140k. Apple Pay issuer talks still unfinalized. 1,320 is today’s pivot — hold it and ICICI leads any FinNifty repair. |
| SBI | SBIN | 978.50 | ↘️ -5.87% | R 1,010 / S 960 | Top bank mover down — biggest UPI-volume bank hit from both sides: insurance-distribution income fears + strike week (SBI branches open Sun Sep 27; strike Sep 28–30). Below ₹1,000, needs the tape’s help. |
| Axis Bank | AXISBANK | 1,186.50 | ↘️ -4.56% | R 1,225 / S 1,150 | Second-biggest bank fall — heavy bancassurance exposure to the IRDAI cap. The Apple Pay first-issuer story is intact but buried under the regulatory overhang. 1,150 is the line to hold. |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | KOTAKBANK | 405.00 | ↗️ +0.88% | R 415 / S 395 | The only Tier-A gainer on a crash day — 811/franchise-light distribution model reads as IRDAI-defensive. Quality bid visible; 415 next. |
💳 FINTECH — Pure Play
Tier B1 — Digital Payments & Wallets
| Company | Symbol | Close (Sep 24) | Change % | Key Levels | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One97 (Paytm) | PAYTM | 1,735.50 | ↘️ -2.23% | R 1,800 / S 1,680 | Gave back part of Wednesday’s UPI-fee pop. 0.4% merchant MDR on >₹2,000 txns (Oct 15) is its structural tailwind — govt says merchants can’t pass it to consumers. Aug UPI share 8.03%. Buy-the-dip zone 1,680–1,700. |
| MobiKwik | MOBIKWIK | 203.80 | ↗️ +0.43% | R 212 / S 195 | Green on a red tape — smallcap defensive. Wallet/credit story unchanged. |
Tier B2 — Insurance & Credit Marketplaces
| Company | Symbol | Close (Sep 24) | Change % | Key Levels | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB Fintech (Policybazaar) | PBFINTECH | 1,258.80 | ↘️ -33.27% | R 1,450 / S 1,200 | Historic crash — worst day since Nov 2021 listing; ~₹31,426 cr m-cap wiped. IRDAI’s proposed product-level commission caps (est. 30–66% cuts in health/term/motor) hit its take-rate model; CEO Dahiya warns of “severe impact” on non-life, slower hiring, FY28 risk. Offset: HDFC MF bought 25 lakh shares (~₹321 cr) into the crash. Paper is a consultation — comments open till Oct 25, rules not final. Expect violent two-way moves. |
Tier B3 — Payment Infrastructure & Gateways
| Company | Symbol | Close (Sep 24) | Change % | Key Levels | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AvenuesAI (ex-Infibeam Avenues) | CCAVENUE (INFIBEAM) | 15.99 | ↘️ -0.62% | R 16.9 / S 15.5 | Mild damage; FY27 guide (₹11,000–13,000 cr revenue, EPS ₹8.75–9.50 post split) intact. AGM Sep 29. MDR tailwind not priced yet. |
| Pine Labs | PINELABS | 179.31 | ↘️ -4.77% | R 190 / S 172 | Merchant POS/payments names sold with the fintech complex. 0.4% MDR is a direct revenue lever for merchant-acquiring models — watch for the differentiated read today. |
| NPST | NPST | ~1,782 | ↘️ ≈ -3.4% | R 1,880 / S 1,700 | UPI infra pure-play tracked the fintech drawdown. UPI transaction growth + MDR economics remain the structural bid. |
Tier B4 — Payments Banking & Cards
| Company | Symbol | Close (Sep 24) | Change % | Key Levels | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fino Payments Bank | FINOPB | ~129.28 | ↘️ ≈ -2.6% | R 138 / S 125 | Payments-bank beta with the market. 143M+ customer base intact; no insurance-distribution overhang of scale. |
| SBI Cards | SBICARD | 618.40 | ↘️ -2.61% | R 640 / S 600 | CIS at 124.05m, industry +~490k net adds (SBI +193k, ICICI +140k, HDFC +123k, Axis +33k) — card growth engine still on. Spent the day in the market’s shadow, not the IRDAI one. |
Tier B5 — ATM & Cash (Peripheral)
| Company | Symbol | Close (Sep 24) | Change % | Key Levels | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGS Transact ⚠️ | AGSTRA | ~2.29 | ↗️ ≈ +4.6% | — | ⚠️ Under CIRP — micro-cap, trader-only territory. Penny-tape bounce, not an investment signal. |
📰 Sector News
- IRDAI commission-cap bombshell: Consultation paper (Sep 23) proposes returning to product-level commission caps (scrapped in 2023), linked to product, channel and complexity. Analysts see 30–66% cuts in health/term/motor distribution. PB Fintech -33%, Turtlemint -20%, Max Financial -9.71%, HDFC Life -4.96%, ICICI Pru Life -3.44%; bancassurance-heavy banks (SBI, Axis) fell hard. Comments open till Oct 25 — proposals, not final rules.
- UPI MDR 0.4% (txns >₹2,000), effective Oct 15: Government sources say the merchant fee cannot be passed on to consumers. Payers unaffected; acquiring banks/PSPs (Paytm, Pine Labs et al) get a revenue line after a decade of free rails.
- 3-day bank strike Sep 28–30 confirmed: UFBU (~90% of banking workforce) demands a five-day week. Govt advanced central govt salary/pension payout to today (Sep 25); SBI says branches open as usual on Sunday Sep 27 with RBI approval. Digital channels/UPI expected normal; branch and cheque/cash services at risk next week.
- Credit cards: Cards-in-force at 124.05m; September-cycle net adds led by SBI (+193k), ICICI (+140k), HDFC (+123k), Axis (+33k).
- UPI goes live in Bahrain: NPCI International × BENEFIT (Bahrain’s payment network) — cross-border UPI acceptance grows another notch.
- Macro overhang: Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia pushed crude up ~3% Wednesday (Brent $106.02, -0.54% today); US 10-year yield ~5.11%. Both keep FII caution elevated into the weekend.
Sources: Moneycontrol, NSE India, Economic Times Markets, Business Standard, NDTV Profit Disclaimer: AI-generated for educational purposes. Not investment advice.